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THE FACTS: (1) Concern about global warming has reduced public attention to the many other threats against the health of our planet and the lives of its inhabitants. Some of these, such as loss of water resources, are much aggravated by global warming; others, such as deforestation, contribute to it; while still others, such as over fishing, pollution and soil depletion, are mostly independent of it. Each of these, by itself, portends seriously for the future of humanity. Collectively they portend eventual disaster.
(2) Even if our emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, also methane and a few others) could be reduced enough so that natural processes remove equal amounts, the gas concentrations in the atmosphere would continue increasing for a while because of rain forest destruction and out-gassing of methane from melting permafrost. Additionally, the loss of reflective ice cover enables more of the sun’s radiant energy to penetrate the earth’s surface. So the temperature increase would persist for quite a few decades until a new equilibrium could be established. The consequence would be degradation or ruin of many habitats and environments worldwide. Adaptation would be very difficult.
(3) But, something different will happen. Only a few of the goals for combating global warming contemplate such drastic limits to our greenhouse gas emissions. All the others, the main ones, call for reduction by some percentage, to be attained some years in the future. Therefore, the concentrations will continue to rise indefinitely. There will be no equilibrium. Heating will increase, and accelerate, without limit. The result will be devastation to ALL habitats. Adaptation will be impossible.
(4) An example? The planet Venus is enveloped by a heavy, 96% carbon dioxide atmosphere, which has caused a runaway greenhouse effect. Venus’ surface temperature is about 482° C (900° F), hotter than Mercury’s, hot enough to melt lead.
(5) Worldwide, fossil fuel producers are increasing their outputs to meet surging demands. There is a frenzy to find more petroleum, natural gas and coal to aid the quest for “energy independence”. All of that carbon is destined for our atmosphere. Most people don’t believe or don’t care about global warming. People who are concerned assume that technology along with minor economic and lifestyle disruptions can solve the problem. They debate among themselves about how much disruption is needed or can be tolerated. All are oblivious of the impending devastation and its temporal proximity. The power of greed and stupidity to overwhelm ingenuity, reason and foresight, assures that even those (above) called-for inadequate goals for reducing emissions will not be realized in a timely way. Humanity is headed towards the end of the pier with its foot on the accelerator, not on the brake.
THE COROLLARY: Habitat destruction and species extinctions (especially the larger and more complex species), due to planetary heating and other causes, will be virtually complete probably around the end of the century. One of the terminated species will be Homo sapiens.
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ADDENDUM 1:
If you are unconvinced please ask yourself: Which of the 5 facts do you think are wrong?
Do you think the earth's temperature is not related to the concentration of greenhouse gases (ghg) in the atmosphere (2 & 3)?
Do you think we'll make significant reduction in ghg emissions in a timely way (3 & 5)?
Do you think there is no out-gassing of ghg from melting permafrost & rain forest destruction; that it's not worsening (2)?
Do you think that worldwide ice is not melting and loss of reflective ice allows more radiant energy to penetrate*(2)?
Do you think technology can save us? If you do read this: http://www.newsweek.com/id/189293
* Actually, loss of ice cover may be partially offset by increasing cloud cover & by our particulate emissions.
ADDENDUM 2:
“. . . latest IPCC report indicate[s] that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century . . . warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop . . . is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice . . .” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
In a local weather variation 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) is less than trivial. In global mean temperature it will be disastrous for nearly all environments. Current predictions are dire: deserts will cover much of what is now farm or pasture land; islands & coastal areas will submerge; hurricanes will increase in power & frequency. The worst prediction: most glaciers in temperate & tropical regions will be gone or greatly diminished around mid century. Billions of people will live in areas (China, India, Western North & South America, much of Europe, for example) that do not have enough water to sustain their populations year round. Precipitation will probably continue for some of these places, for a few it may even increase, but, rather than flowing rivers, it will be more like regional toilet flushes, floods and landslides followed by nearly dry river beds. Irrigation will be impossible.
Finally, looking forward towards 2100, consider the changes that have taken place over the past century, consider also that the rate of change is increasing and that we’re headed in a really, really bad direction. Possibly extinction will not happen around 2100; it will certainly happen much, much sooner than 3000, how much sooner depends on what we do or don’t do now.
